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Very thoughtful article! Your story of the lunch with the futurist was very interesting. You're mostly focused on photo journalism - what about other kinds of photography? fine art, commercial: portrait, wedding, etc? Once back in the late 1990s art directors used to send text to typesetters, get back galleys that artists sliced up to surround images at ad agencies...there were folks with mad skills using Xacto knives.... Nothing like a photographer and their skills, but just an observation on the evolution of technology and markets. Also back then folks thought digital could NEVER replace film.

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I think you're right that photojournalism is specifically at the forefront of this risk, but certainly all manner of commercial photography too. (Corporate, advertising, catalog, etc.) My worry is that the economics that power anything other than fine art is ultimately in jeopardy. That corner of the photo world may be safe, but that also feels to me like a niche that has always been off limits to all but a select few artists. Maybe I'm being too pessimistic.

The question of wedding photography is a very interesting one. I would imagine that to have better staying power, maybe just because people want something that personally important in a more permanent form. But I can certainly imagine a world where the main entity is the wedding video, shot in 8k, with still frames pulled from it for printing. I'll be curious to see how that shakes out.

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Interesting about weddings. One of my sons actually took that route -- his wedding was shot solely in video (obviously except for those w/their iPhones) but the venue was very casual/contemporary; while my other son's wedding was more traditional and they hired a photographer... and also a videographer. What other outlets for still photography besides fine art can you imagine? No one's putting out album covers anymore, for example... But what about travel photography?

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Wild to know that it's already happening, that people are skipping the photography in their wedding in favor of the video. More evidence!

I think travel photography, presumably, will simply be travel videography. It's all based on the technology, I hypothesize, so since the limitations of print are no longer an issue, the benefits of video (which can be broadcast via tiktok, youtube, etc) are only going to grow.

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Just re-read this article. Twenty-four years ago, while I was studying at the Museum School in Boston, everyone was saying that painting is dead. Since then, I note, painting is still very much alive.

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True! But I am less worried about photography sticking around as a mode of artistic expression and more concerned about its commercial viability (for not entirely but mostly selfish reasons). My guess is commercial portrait painting took a big hit in the 1850s.

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Appreciate the analysis and thoughts, Bill!

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